Ziff Energy and Gas Processing Management Inc. have kicked off a new study that will analyze the growth of shale gas production in western Canada. Expected to weigh in at more than 200 pages, the “North Montney and Shale Gas Growth Resource and Infrastructure Study” will comprise the area from west of Fort St. John, British Columbia, to the Yukon and Northwest Territories including the Horn River, Liard and Cordova Shale Gas Basins.
The study will forecast gas and liquids to 2023 with the gas potentially being an important feedstock for western LNG development. The study assesses the impact that the developing production will have on 24 sweet and sour gas processing plants including: Cabin, Caribou, Chinchaga, Cypress, Fort Nelson, Jedney, Rainbow, Sierra, Wildboy and Zama. This new study is the northward continuation of the previously released Ziff Energy and Gas Processing Management “South Montney and Tight Gas Study.”
The “North Montney and Shale Gas Growth Study” is the fourth in a series of resource and infrastructure analyses that address developing western Canada tight gas (Cretaceous, Duvernay and Montney) and shale gas growth, required new plant and pipeline infrastructure and the impact on the existing processing facilities and gathering systems. The series of studies includes:
• The 165-page “South Montney Tight Gas Growth in British Columbia and Alberta,” January 2012.
• The 225-page “Tight Gas and North Duvernay Growth in Alberta,” June 2012.
• The 234-page “South Duvernay Growth in Alberta,” February 2013.
• The new “North Montney and Shale Gas Analysis,” summer/fall 2013.
These Studies are currently supported by 35 industry subscriptions and 21 participating companies representing a broad segment of Alberta and British Columbia producers, operators, pipeline and financial companies.
The new “North Montney and Shale Gas Growth Study” will:
1. Develop an independent analysis of the production and infrastructure requirements independent of company ownership and control.
2. Divide the North Montney and shale gas study area into seven sub-regions for detailed analysis.
3. View the Alberta and British Columbia natural gas fundamentals to define the economic landscape for growth.
4. Forecast production from existing reserves and developing resources through to 2023 (10 years), focusing on gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and ethane.
5. Analyze developing North Montney and shale gas potential, an important component of the feedstock for the developing western Canada LNG.
6. Examine the existing gas gathering and processing infrastructure and detail areas where additional or modified capacity will be required. This may identify repositioning opportunities within the existing infrastructure if the capacity is not required for the developing resource.
7. Develop an integrated approach to reduce capital requirements, cycle times, operating expenses and optimize product recoveries. Frame and detail the gathering, processing and take-away infrastructure (gas and NGL); identifying areas of concern on gas and liquids take away capacity.
8. Outline an integrated path forward for the industry to logically coordinate and develop the area to increase its competitiveness within the competitive North American natural gas and liquids markets. Detail the commercial underpinning for integrated infrastructure development.
9. Define the impact that an integrated industry approach could have on provincial revenues (Alberta — Royalties and Gas Cost Allowance, British Columbia — Royalties, Gas Cost Allowance and Producer Cost of Service).
Ziff Energy and Gas Processing Management Inc. are two independent consulting firms spearheading these studies.